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STUDY OF INTERNAL CONFLICT SCHOLARSHIP

Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC) began in 2014 as a research project at the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College to determine the root causes of government defeat in internal conflict since World War 2. Within defined parameters, the study applied regression analysis to more than 50 military, political, economic, social, cultural and geographical factors in the 53 largest internal conflicts since 1945 to determine which factors correlate with government failure in at least 90 percent of all internal conflicts.

Five factors were identified, at least one of which was present in virtually every government defeat:

1. Less than 85 percent of the total population expressing a national identity;
2. Less than 85 percent government legitimacy;
3. Less than 85 percent of population being fully isolated from contact with the rebel group;
4. The existence of persistent external sanctuary for the rebel group; and/or
5. The lack of sustainable, pre-existing security forces under the control of the government at the outset of the conflict.

SOIC also found that in none of the cases analyzed did counterinsurgency methods such as 鈥渞econstruction,鈥� 鈥減acification鈥� and 鈥渃lear, hold and build鈥� ever increase popular support for the government or grow legitimacy in any quantifiable degree. In 2025, the U.S. Army War College agreed for the continuance of SOIC studies at USF. Research associated with SOIC currently continues under the leadership of its designated Non-Resident Senior Fellow 鈥� Dr. Chris Mason. All USF faculty and students are eligible to participate in SOIC scholarship, with possible publishing opportunities.

The individual case studies are organized by region, which you can see in the navigation menu to the left.

Contact robertburrell@usf.edu with any inquiries.